BILL@ya1136

Joined: 2013-08-24
i love this game. i hate this game.
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some horse racing methods i have discovered and will share and maybe you can refine them

2021-01-05       

like most discoveries, i fell upon this by accident and it was because of something that would frustrate me at first. i call this THE SUPER FAVORITE. i was testing another system i bought. it uses the odds of the last three races. you add them up and if they are less than 12, it provides the ideal odds range  to bet these horses because they are overlays. i won't tell too much about this system, since i bought it and don't want to get in trouble, but it is called "across the board overlays." you don't find alot of races where a horse fits the requirement of the odds total, but what frustrated me me was when i would find a race where more than one, sometimes even three horses all had odds in there last 3 races that total 12 or less when added up. this system, generally, focuses on horses that have very low odds in their last three races, and usually are the favorite or very close to it in all three of those races. the frustration came when i would finally find a horse that qualified this way then then there is another horse or two in the same race that also qualify. this is when i noticed something......when there are more than 1 qualifiers, especially more than 2 qualifiers....whoever ends up being the favorite at post time is a SUPER FAVORITE and is almost damned sure to win. these horses were ranked , by the betting public, as top contenders in ALL of their last three races and whichever horse out of these ends up being the favorite tonight simply has to be one hell of a horse. something is up....especially if it is a hot favorite. now, i made a previous post about when to bet beaten favorites....this SUPER FAVORITE, is probably one of the best beaten favorites to bet next time, ESPECIALLY if its odds remain low or it is a favorite again. i did a short study, because it is tedious to keep trach of when a horse runs again etc.....but out of 10 races, where a beaten SUPER FAVORITE ran again....7 out 10 races winners, 2 seconds and 1 third. and these horses win with authority and run very determined races. if anybody has any ideas or wants to tweak this method, maybe you will give me a post. 
 the nest system i've been tracking started as a joke and is so ridiculously simple i am having a hard time believing the results. i use this at the harness races and it is a long shot system. the system??  whichever horse has the fastest THIRD QUARTER FRACTION in its last race. that is basically it...it is stupid that this works so often. people focus on the first quarter speed of a horse...or the final ( FOURTH ) quarter speed, and completely ignore the THIRD QUARTER.  if you go and check out the last month of harness racing at woodbine/mohawk and and see the results of the horses with the fastest third quarter fraction, you will laugh and how often they win and how huge the payoffs are. i am just tracking this method but i would not bet these horses at odds lower than 5 -1.  they are coming in at 20 -1...30 -1.....i got one at 60 -1 ....and all it took was about 10 seconds to scan the program. thats it...ONE FACTOR HANDICAPPING.  there are some things or rules to consider, it tends to help the selection process. the time should  be on the same track ( but you can catch some horses coming from lower class half mile tracks that show a third quarter time even faster than the horses its running agsinst have shown at woodbine/mohawk ). the horse should show improvement in its position and lengths behind, it doesn't have to be much. this enforces that its fast third quarter time was a good effort compared to the other horses and that it just wasn't only running AS FAST as everyone else. if it shows a fast third quarter time and EVERYONE ELSE was also going that fast, because the horse hasn't improved or has lost ground, then the third quarter time doesn't suggest anything exceptional. works best when the selected horse is starting from the inside post positions and has to work less to get a good position at the start or have to come from too far back ( for woodbine/mohawk, post position 6 and lower, post 6 is actually the best performing post position for some reason ). avoid races where there are ties. only bet when the odds are generous, above 5 - 1 at the very least. these horses tend to be overlays, i believe, because the betting public focuses on early speed ( first quarter ) or late speed ( fourth quarter ) and overlooks the third quarter fraction and these horses end up being overlays. when these horses go off at 10-1 to 15- 1 i feel as confident betting on them as if they were at 3 - 1 odds. do not bet on them if they finished 1st or 2nd in their last race. you won't be getting odds and the horse has already been spent. there are certain races i will avoid, these being when the selection had a decent race and looks fairly well suited for the race but is the second biggest long shot or the biggest long shot and there are two horses in the race that are BOTH hot favorites and below  2-1 odds. something is up there.....the betting public can overlook betting value, but not by this much.  the show payoffs are amazing and i would bet these horses in the following betting unit amount : 2 to win 2 to place 10 to show. these horses pay more to show than favorites or second favorites pay to win, you get all your money and then some. if you don't mind riding long streaks of losing, playing them to win is probably the best in the long run. they win about 25 percent of the time, in my estimation. if you have any ideas about these, or tweaks....give me a post. ( it is damned near impossible to have a rigid, completely mechanical method and set of rules when it comes to horse racing. but the experience you gain trying this method will develop a good instinct and you might find a few more rules or exceptions......however, i find when a system become too rigid, a lot of opportunities are missed, and if the rules are too lax, a lot of money is thrown away. yet i believe, just blindly betting the horse with the third quarter lowest fraction every time, when there are no ties, will wield you a profit. the payoffs are just too big and frequent )


p.s  one race result to illustrate the value you can get and why value is important. the 10th race at woodbine ( harness racing )  december 21.  the number 4 horse, PREMIER CABERNET  HAD THE FASTEST THIRD QUARTER FRACTION  27 3/5 SECONDS.  it improved its lengths behind and had also made a big move to challenge for the lead during the third quarter when it ran that fast fraction. going off at 9-1.  there was a very hot favorite that was dropping in class called MACK MY KISS, going off at 3/5. this means if you bet 5 bucks on this horse, you get back 8 bucks...a 3 dollar profit on your 5 dollar bet.......SHIT.  it looked like PREMIER CABERNET was going to fade as they got to the top of the stretch with two horses ahead of him, but it rallied and got the motor running and about halfway down the stretch it looked like it was actually going to win it and just missed by a nose, so close!!!  MACK MY KISS won. here is the point......i bet in units of 2 to win 2 to place and 10 to show. lets assume that is 2 dollars to win and place and 10 dollars to  show......MACK MY KISS paid a lousy  $3.30 to win....a lousy $2.80 to place  and a shitty $2.50 to show ( for each 2 dollar bet )  if i bet him i would have gotten back,  3.30 + 2.80 + ( 5 x 2.50 = 12.50) for a total of  18.60 - my intial 14.00 dollar bet = $4.80 profit....and we won the race!!  but i bet PREMIER CABERNET, who just came second, and i got  8.90 back for the place bet and 5 x 3.70 =  18.50 for the show bet for a total of  27.40 - 14.00 (initial bet ) =  13.40 profit.....essentially double the amount i bet. almost 3 times more than the winner.  this is why...it is not about picking winners, its about betting on value. i don't know why people will pile on a horse like this and bet into a horse going off at 3/5 odds, but it is good that they do, they create opportunities for me.  my horse paid more to SHOW than the winner paid to WIN for christ sake.